If you haven’t been assigned a thunderstorm the past few days, chances are pretty good you’ll make up for that Sunday as we expect at least three rounds of strong to severe storms to impact the state.

The first round is possible early in the morning as people are getting up for church or Father’s Day plans. This is the round that’s a little tricky for models and forecasters and it all depends on how far into Alabama the storms travel. Confidence is solid that strong to severe storms will travel into Mississippi, but how much they make it across the state line is the big question. If they travel farther, a risk level may increase for some Alabama counties for round one.

For the first round, a Level 2 risk covers the southwestern corner of the state right up to Demopolis. A Level 1 risk covers west and south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Eufaula and includes Clanton, Montgomery, Selma, Auburn, and Troy. Risks in both areas include severe storms, hail, and damaging winds.

The second and third rounds are expected in the afternoon into the evening with more storms possible overnight. For the later time period, a Level 3 risk includes Butler, Grove Hill, Tensaw, and Mobile. A Level 2 covers Brewton, Andalusia, Burnt Corn, Camden, Greenville, Troy, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Clanton, Tuscaloosa, and Hamilton. A Level 1 includes the rest of the state.

Risks in the afternoon, evening, and overnight include damaging winds, hail, torrential rain, severe storms, and a tornado or two. The higher the risk, the more confidence in more storms.

There’s no break for the weary yet. Monday has a Level 1 risk for just about the entire state.

North Alabama

Partly sunny with a chance of a couple showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 89. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening and overnight. Low of 69. Some storms could be strong to severe.

Central Alabama

Partly sunny with a couple showers and storms after 10 a.m. High of 89. Widespread showers and thunderstorms in the evening and overnight. Low of 68. Some storms could be strong to severe.

South Alabama

Partly sunny with showers and storms possible after 10 a.m. High of 91. Showers and storms likely in the evening and overnight. Low of 69. Strong to severe storms are possible.

Gulf Coast

Showers and storms are likely, mainly in the early afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a high near 89. Mostly cloudy overnight with a few showers or storms possible. An isolated severe storm is possible.